Jó Hír Izraelnek: Stabilizálódik Az Államadós-besorolás
Recent developments have brought a glimmer of hope for Israel as the S&P Global Ratings agency has upgraded its outlook on the nation’s state debt ratings from negative to stable. This decision stems from the perception that a ceasefire with Hamas has significantly reduced the security risks confronting Israel.
On a Friday evening announcement in London, the credit rating company confirmed it is maintaining Israel’s long- and short-term sovereign debt obligations at an ‘A/A-1’ rating. In justifying this decision, S&P underscored the strengths of Israel’s economy, which include its high-income diversified structure, substantial net external asset position, advantages arising from a flexible monetary framework, and relatively deep domestic savings.
A Ceasefire’s Impact on Israel’s Economy
The agency anticipates that the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas will create an opportunity to halt military confrontations, although some sporadic clashes and temporary violations of the ceasefire remain possible. Efforts by Israel to mitigate the military capabilities of its adversaries—primarily Iran and its associated forces, such as Hezbollah—have largely been successful. However, uncertainties linger regarding Iran’s determination to rebuild its nuclear development capacities.
Anticipated Economic Recovery
S&P predicts that the suspension of direct military activities will facilitate an economic recovery already underway in Israel. The firm posits that Israel’s GDP—which experienced a 4% decline year-on-year in the second quarter due to military confrontations with Iran—could rebound strongly with a projected 5% growth next year. This recovery is anticipated to arise from bolstered consumer and business confidence, coupled with a decrease in the number of mobilized reservists.
Defense Spending Projections
The credit rating agency also expects that defense and security expenditures, which peaked at 8% of GDP last year, will begin to decline while likely remaining above pre-war levels. It is estimated that Israel’s budget deficit relative to GDP will hover just below 6% this year, tapering to 4.8% next year. Nonetheless, it is projected that the net public debt-to-GDP ratio will remain around 67% until 2028.
S&P emphasizes that its previous forecasts anticipated a reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio to below 55% by the end of this timeframe. The current debt structure proves favorable, with more than 80% of sovereign obligations held in the portfolios of domestic investors and denominated in local currency, while short-term debts constitute barely 8% of the total.
As Israel navigates potential threats and opportunities in the geopolitical landscape, the improvements marked by this credit rating reassessment provide crucial backing for the nation’s economic framework.
(MTI)
Forrás: privatbankar.hu/cikkek/makro/dontott-egy-hitelminosito-jo-hirt-kapott-izrael.html
